Oren Cass: The Surprising Economic Vision You Need to Know -

Oren Cass: Charting a New Economic Course for America Washington, D. C. In a significant departure from decades of established conservative economic thought, Oren Cass, founder and chief economist of the American Compass think tank, has emerged as a leading voice advocating for a radical reorientation of U. S. economic policy. His vision, detailed extensively in his influential 2018 book, "The Once and Future Worker: A Vision for the Renewal of Work in America," challenges the conventional wisdom that has prioritized consumer welfare and aggregate GDP growth, instead placing the well-being of the American worker at the center of national prosperity. This "productivist" approach seeks to rebuild a robust industrial base and foster an economy where productive labor forms the bedrock of strong families and communities. Redefining Prosperity: Beyond Consumer Welfare Cass's core argument revolves around what he terms the "Working Hypothesis": that "a labor market in which workers can support strong families and communities is the central determinant of long-term prosperity. " He contends that the prevailing economic consensus, often dubbed "economic piety," has erroneously focused on maximizing consumption and overall economic output (GDP) without sufficient regard for how these metrics impact the dignity and stability of working Americans. His critique points to stagnant wages, declining labor force participation, and social ills such as rising substance abuse and falling life expectancy as evidence that the "pie" of economic growth has not been equitably distributed, and in fact, has come at a significant cost to many. Cass argues that a society focused solely on cheaper goods and services, regardless of where they are produced or under what conditions, undermines the capacity for American workers to find meaningful, family-supporting employment. To address these perceived failings, Cass and American Compass propose a suite of policy changes. A cornerstone of his agenda is a re-industrialization strategy aimed at revitalizing domestic manufacturing. This includes advocating for an across-the-board 10% tariff on imported goods, with an additional 5% annual increase until trade deficits are eliminated. Such measures, he argues, would protect local industries and incentivize domestic production. Furthermore, he envisions investment in local industry being supported by a national development bank. Beyond trade, Cass champions a fundamental shift in education and workforce development, urging a move away from an exclusive focus on four-year college degrees towards robust vocational training and apprenticeship programs.

He believes this would better equip a broader segment of the population with the skills needed for productive work. In terms of labor policy, while critical of traditional union rigidities, Cass advocates for unionization models that enable collective bargaining for sector-wide pay standards and working conditions, sometimes suggesting non-profit "coops" as an alternative framework. The F. I. S. C. (Family Income Supplement Credit) is another key proposal, a comprehensive framework for providing a monthly per-child benefit to support working families, distinguishing it from unconditional cash payments by linking it to working status. Cass also advocates for a "conscious decoupling" from China, asserting that decades of misguided globalization have weakened America's economy and security, necessitating a disentanglement of the nation's future from the Chinese Communist Party's influence. The Genesis of a New Conservatism Oren Cass's journey to becoming a prominent economic thinker is rooted in a blend of academic rigor and practical political experience. A graduate of Williams College and Harvard Law School, where he served as an editor of the Harvard Law Review, Cass entered the public policy arena as the domestic policy director for Mitt Romney's 2012 presidential campaign. It was during this period that Romney reportedly drew his attention to the economic challenges posed by China and the eroding industrial heartland of America, colloquially known as the "Rust Belt. " From 2015 to 2019, Cass was a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute, where he began to articulate his arguments for a re-evaluated American society and economic policy. His work culminated in "The Once and Future Worker," a book that quickly garnered attention across the political spectrum for its unflinching critique of the prevailing economic consensus. In February 2020, Cass founded American Compass, a Washington, D. C. -based conservative think tank dedicated to exploring "what the post-Trump right-of-center is going to be. " The organization has since become a central hub for developing and promoting a new conservative economic agenda, emphasizing family, community, and industry over a "blind faith in free markets.

" His ideas resonate deeply with a segment of the Republican Party that seeks to distance itself from what it perceives as the failures of neoliberal economic policies, particularly those that have overseen manufacturing decline and wage stagnation for many working-class Americans. Cass's framework offers an intellectual underpinning for the populist economic sentiments that gained prominence in recent political cycles. Diverse Reactions and Enduring Impact Cass's economic vision has elicited a range of responses from policymakers, economists, and public commentators, sparking robust debate within and beyond conservative circles. His proposals have found strong advocates among certain Republican leaders. For instance, Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL) and Senator J. D. Vance (R-OH), now Vice President-elect, have publicly praised "The Once and Future Worker," with Vance calling it "among the most important I've ever read. " Former Senator Mitt Romney (R-UT) has also commended Cass for articulating the conservative argument for the importance of work to America's long-term prosperity. American Compass's involvement in initiatives like Project 2025, a collection of conservative policy proposals for a potential future Republican administration, underscores its growing influence. However, Cass's ideas have also faced considerable criticism, particularly from traditional free-market advocates and economists. Critics often point to what they perceive as inconsistencies and contradictions in his arguments. For example, some observe that Cass simultaneously decries foreign direct investment as a "selling off of American assets" while praising foreign-owned auto plants in the U. S. as industrial policy successes. Similarly, his stance on labor unions has been called incoherent, as he critiques union rigidity for past declines while supporting models like sectoral bargaining that would strengthen organized labor. Economists like Ryan Bourne of the Cato Institute have directly challenged Cass's protectionist arguments, contending that tariffs harm American consumers by increasing costs and that his portrayal of the U. S.

economy as a "mess" lacks comparative context with other developed nations like Germany or Japan. Critics also argue that Cass's emphasis on production over consumption fundamentally misunderstands the purpose of economic activity, asserting that production ultimately serves consumption, and policies that excessively favor producers can lead to inefficiencies, cartels, and reduced consumer welfare. They also debate his interpretations of classical economists such as Adam Smith and David Ricardo, arguing that Cass selectively uses their ideas to support his modern protectionist stance. Furthermore, opponents suggest that Cass often overlooks the inherent trade-offs involved in his proposed policies, particularly the potential for reduced economic efficiency and innovation. The Path Forward for a Productivist Agenda The discussions surrounding Oren Cass's economic vision are poised to continue shaping policy debates, especially within the Republican Party and the broader conservative movement. With American Compass actively developing policy proposals for potential future administrations, Cass's "New Direction" agendais likely to remain at the forefront of policy discussions. The ongoing challenges of globalization, technological displacement, and the perceived hollowing out of the middle class provide fertile ground for ideas that prioritize the domestic worker and industrial capacity. While the economic implications and practical feasibility of his proposals will continue to be debated, Cass's intellectual project represents a significant and evolving current within American political thought, compelling both sides of the aisle to reconsider fundamental assumptions about economic prosperity and national strength. The extent to which his productivist vision translates into concrete policy action will be a key development to watch in the coming years. A Shifting Economic Dialogue Oren Cass's surprising economic vision marks a notable inflection point in American economic discourse. By prioritizing productive labor and domestic industry over traditional metrics of consumption and aggregate growth, he has ignited a critical conversation about the true meaning of prosperity and the role of public policy in fostering a thriving society. His ideas, though met with both fervent support and sharp criticism, underscore a deepening desire across the political spectrum to address the economic anxieties of working families and to reconsider the foundations of national economic strength in an increasingly complex global landscape. For a deeper dive into Oren Cass's ideas and their impact, you can watch Hub Dialogues: Oren Cass on the economics of the New Right. This video provides an insightful conversation with Cass on his economic perspectives and how they are animating the "New Right. ".